Padres-Diamondbacks Sept. 25-27 series likely decides final Wild Card spot

The Padres and Diamondbacks are tied in the loss column with Arizona ahead by half a game in the National League Wild Card race, per MLB.com. Their final three-game series at Petco Park on September 25-27 will likely decide which team claims the final postseason berth.

The stakes are reshaping rosters and strategic timelines now. The two teams have split their 10 games against each other this season, which means the winner of the September series will also own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Teams are already factoring this compressed race into pitching plans and roster management weeks before the series plays out.

A four-game lead for either squad would clinch the spot outright, bypassing the need to win the series at all. A more realistic cushion of two games would require only one victory in the three-game set to secure the Wild Card. Per MLB.com, the Padres have 16 games remaining to position themselves for that final-weekend showdown.

The Padres' rotation is compromised heading into the stretch. Pitcher Nick Pivetta returns Monday after missing nearly five months with a flexor strain in his right elbow, according to MLB.com. Joe Musgrove is still recovering from Tommy John surgery with status to be determined. Reliever Jason Adam is ramping up while Jeremiah Estrada remains further from availability. Reliever Michael King could be lined up to start the finale of the September series if it proves decisive, or he could be held back for Game 1 of the postseason, the reporting shows.

The Diamondbacks advanced their position on Sunday. Eduardo Rodriguez registered his 15th win in a 3-2 victory over the Astros, the most wins for Rodriguez as a Diamondback and his best season since winning 19 with the Red Sox in 2019, per MLB.com. Rodriguez allowed one run on three hits across six innings, striking out six and walking two. He produced 19 swings and misses overall, with his changeup and four-seam fastball generating 16 of those. His season ERA stands at 2.55, which would be the lowest of his career; his previous career-best was 3.30 in 2023 with Detroit. Rodriguez is 6-0 in his last eight road starts with a 1.90 ERA and 36 strikeouts. Rodriguez has recorded a winning decision in seven of his last nine starts dating back to late July, per MLB.com.

The Diamondbacks took two of three from Houston and own a half-game lead for the final National League Wild Card spot. The team came from behind for the second consecutive game on Sunday, marking their 43rd comeback victory for the season, the most in Major League Baseball, according to MLB.com.

The Marlins, Cardinals and Pirates remain mathematically alive in the Wild Card race from the fringe, though MLB.com characterizes them as longshots. Barring something unusual, only one postseason spot remains available.